LONDON, Aug.5 (Reuters) – Eight years after its last update on climate science, the United Nations is set to release a report on Monday that will likely provide even harsher warnings about how quickly the planet is warming – and how damaging the impacts could be. .
Since last report According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013, greenhouse gas emissions and global average temperature have only continued to rise. Read more
The new report will predict how many more emissions can be pumped into the atmosphere before the average global temperature rises by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. This revised carbon budget could serve as a guide for governments as they develop their own emission reduction plans ahead of a major United Nations climate conference in November. Read more
Scientists say the world must halve global emissions by 2030 and reduce them to net zero by 2050 in order to prevent global warming above 1.5 ° C, which could trigger catastrophic impacts to worldwide.
But climate change is already fueling deadly and disastrous weather conditions across the world. Almost all of the world’s glaciers are melting faster. Hurricanes are stronger. This year alone, unprecedented rains have triggered flooding in parts of central China and Europe, while forest fires are ravaging Siberia, the western United States and the Mediterranean.
“The report will not only cover the fact that we are breaking record after record in terms of climate change impacts, but will show that the world today is in uncharted territory in terms of sea level rise and ice cover. “said Kelly Levin, chief science officer, Data and Systems Change at the Bezos Earth Fund philanthropy.
Overall, the report “will underline the urgency for governments to step up climate action,” she said.
And while the 2013 report said it was “extremely likely” that human industry was causing climate change – suggesting scientists were at least 95% confident in that statement – the report from this year will probably use even stronger language.
“Obviously this is going to be stronger than what we had in the past due to increasing global warming,” said Corinne Le Quéré, climatologist at the University of East Anglia who contributed to previous IPCC assessments.
“This will be one of the main points. It will be discussed very, very carefully and closely examined,” Le Quéré told reporters.
WHAT IS THE IPCC?
Since its inception in 1988, the IPCC has published five so-called assessment reports updating established science on climate change, its impacts, future risks, and ways to tackle the problems.
But the IPCC itself is not made up of scientists. The panel includes government representatives from 195 countries who commission assessments from experts and academics around the world.
In writing these assessments, scientists take into account thousands of individual studies published since the last IPCC report. To finalize their final assessments for the next report, the scientists have had a virtual meeting with policymakers since July 26, reviewing the details and language used in the project.
Governments can suggest changes to the text, but these must be approved by consensus. Scientists must then ensure that the changes are consistent with the scientific evidence.
Monday’s report is actually only part of what will be incorporated into the Sixth Final Assessment Report, or AR6, when it is released in 2022.
The AR6 synthesis report will also include two other major chapters to be released next year – one on the impacts of climate change on communities, societies and economies and how they might adapt to deal with it. , and another on ways to reduce emissions and control climate change. And it will include the findings of three special reports published since 2013 on the 1.5C threshold, on the world oceans and frozen regions, and on land use and degradation.
But Monday’s chapter is one of the most anticipated, especially after being delayed for several months due to the COVID pandemic. Unlike previous assessments, the chapter will use five possible emission trajectories the world could follow rather than the previous four scenarios.
“Emissions scenarios are not meant to say, ‘This is the future: pick one,'” said Ko Barrett, IPCC vice chair. “Policies are being implemented all the time and science is changing all the time, so it just isn’t fair to say we’re on a certain course.”
Reporting by Nina Chestney; Editing by Katy Daigle and Lisa Shumaker
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